Photo by Miguel Medina/AFP.
Matchday 35 is a great opportunity to find value up and down the board. Let’s get started with our Serie A Matchday35 picks.
A dramatic twist has occurred in the race to win the 2021-22 Serie A title.
AC Milan have now become the favourites to win the Serie A title after their shock defeat of Bologna by 2-1 on April 27. Milan is now two points ahead with the tiebreaker and equal games played. The club will win its first Scudetto since 2011, as long as it matches Inter’s results over the last four matchdays.
Juve is currently in third place, with Napoli’s 3-2 defeat to Empoli and Juventus’ 2-1 victory over Sassuolo. After Roma, Lazio and Fiorentina losing, both are guaranteed a Champions League spot next season.
We are now at the bottom of the table thanks to Salernitana’s shocking 2-1 win against Fiorentina and Genoa’s 1-0 victory over Cagliari. This leaves us with an exciting relegation fight. This was impossible three weeks ago.
These are my top Serie A Matchday35 betting picks and forecasts (odds via Caesars Sportsbook and [(1xbet] ; pick confidence is based upon a 1-to-5 star scale.
Top Serie A Matchday 35 Picks
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Serie A Matchday 35 Predictions
Sassuolo +1 (+125)
This is a disrespectful line to Sassuolo’s record against traditional big teams in Italy during 2021-22 season. It also overrates Napoli based upon recent form.
. Sassuolo has won over Inter, Milan and Juventus away, as well as a home win against Lazio and draws against Roma. They have lost points to the likes Genoa, Salernitani and Cagliari and they will not be able to finish in Europe. It was also unlucky to not win something against Juve on April 25, when it won the xG. Sassuolo has the fourth best xG and is tied for the second most away goals. They don’t fear the big boys of Italy.
Napoli’s spirits seem to be broken. They lost 3-2 to Fiorentina, and also lost 1-1 to Roma to lose their title hopes. In the end, they gave up a 2-0 lead to Empoli and lost 3-2. This was Empoli’s first victory since December 12, also against Napoli. I Partenopei only picked up one point in a terrible three-game stretch, and they are now a mid-table team according the advanced statistics.
You get your stake back if Sassuolo loses or wins. Given their track record against top-ranked sides, this is a great play.
Milan to win and both teams to score (+234)
Milan is the favorite to win the title. This is a great result. Fiorentina may give them another break at the San Siro on May 1.
Milan will have a distinct rest advantage over the Viola after they played a make up game on April 27. Fiorentina lost 4-0 at home to Udinese. The opposition won the xG, chances and duels. Fiorentina did a little rotation of their starting 11, but they still had key players like Lucas Torreira and Giacomo Bonaventura. The club had to sub for Jonathan Ikone and Jose Callejon while they were trailing.
Milan were a strong home team this season, ranking third in xPTS, second in xGA San Siro, and the best in that category since 2022. Fiorentina, on the other hand, is not higher than ninth in xGA or xG and xPTS while on the road for 2021-22.
Fiorentina has shown that they have the ability to score away from home. The club has scored at least one goal in 10 of their 11 league games. The squad will not be able score enough goals to defeat a rested Milan side who’s looking for silverware.
Draw (+215)
I have a tradition of betting on the self-preserving, conservative nature of the teams in the Serie A relegation fight come crunch time. The Derby della Lanterna, between Genoa and Sampdoria, is a good bet.
Genoa has logged the most draws this season and in 2022. Genoa is three points from safety, with 25 points. Genoa tries hard to keep in Serie A.
Sampdoria is three points ahead of Genoa after they have won just one of their eight previous games. Both clubs are evenly matched, ranking 17th and 18th respectively in xG and 13th or 14th in xGA.
We always favor a draw in fierce local derbies like these. Given that Venezia is away at Juventus and Salernitana away to Atalanta in the race for relegation, Genoa and Sampdoria could both win a point.
If the match ends in a tie, both teams will likely settle for a draw.
Serie A Matchday 35 Quick Picks
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These are our picks for Serie:
Serie Matchday 35 made at 2:30 p.m. ET
