On Thursday, Chelsea suffered one of its worst results. It dominated Everton by scoring 2.9 goals more than expected. However, it couldn’t make the breakthrough and was held to a 1-1 home draw.
Recent form
The Blue’s next stop in their recent performance is a difficult road trip to Wolves on Saturday.
After achieving a lot more than expected in the first half, the Blues are now experiencing a decline and have seen some disappointing results against Burnley and West Ham. The Wolves defense could prove to be more difficult than Chelsea’s. Perhaps the Wolves’ goalscoring record indicates that there are low expectations for Thomas Tuchel’s attack despite their recent solid performances.
After four consecutive goalless draws, the Wolves scored against Brighton midweek. They were largely outplayed but won despite having missed many important goals scoring opportunities by the Seagulls.
It seemed like a great opportunity to avoid placing a wager on Chelsea and to make a good investment in Wolves. However, the midweek results and the market correction that followed made me decide to go with the over/under.
Regression of Wolves is on the horizon
Because of their poor performance in attack and the outstanding play of Jose Sa, the Wolves have been one the most profitable European teams. Jose Sa is the Premier League’s most successful goalkeeper, saving more goals than expected after each shot. This is not sustainable for Wolves’ goalkeepers.
Jose Sa is the reason the Wolves have conceded only 14 goals out of a total of 23.2 conceded. It is rare to find a team that holds 64% of their shots against their expected goal defense. Any figure between 10-15% and 15% can be considered normal variation if the sample is sufficiently large. But they were lucky.
Also, the Wolves are not getting enough shots against them by attacking teams. Once that happens, they keep scoring. Take a look at recent matches against Liverpool and Manchester City. Bruno Raggi, manager of Bruno Raggi’s team, lost both games 1-0.
Wolves have conceded two goals in the last six games. This is in contrast to the nine expected games. Similar to the attack, it has performed poorly and been extremely inefficient. Their results, when compared to the defense and attack performance, are completely meaningless.
They have scored only 13 goals this year against 17.6, and their main attackers, Francisco Trincon (and Adama Traore) have suffered a serious setback.
Blues deal with COVID infection and lack of starter
Although the Blues have managed to move out of pole position in the race for the Premier League title they will not be able to match Liverpool and Manchester City who have better statistics.
Chelsea is currently four points behind City so it is a must-win situation against Newcastle and Liverpool away from Tottenham.
Four COVID-infected Blues players are unavailable for Sunday’s match – Romelu Lukaku (already hurt), Timo Werner, Ben Chilwell (already hurt), and Callum Hudson Odoi. The Blues can field a strong team against Wolves with Christian Pulisic and Mason Mount, Kai Havertz, and N’Golo Kane back in good health.
Chelsea had the advantage of injuries against Everton and Leeds United, but their dominant attacking performance suggests that they will have plenty of chances on Sunday.
Prediction and Analysis of Betting
The Blues have shown that they can still score goals and create chances without Werner or Lukaku earlier this season. As Conte and Jorginho are back, I expect Chelsea will control the midfield. However, Wolves can counterattack.
Even though the Wolves were unable to win against Liverpool or Manchester City, this was due to their setup, which included defending with more numbers and scoring a point away from home.
Wolves need to be more aggressive and score goals at home against a Chelsea defense that is more likely to respond.
Recent wolverine performances, which were fueled by poor attacking finishing, luck defending and unsustainable goalkeeping, have significantly reduced that number.
Chelsea should dominate this game. Although the Blues’ goal total for this year is still higher than last year’s, their recent poor performances are hurting their image in the market.
Pick: Over 2 goals @1.66 (The odds are courtesy of 1xbet,Get a 100%～200% bonus on your first deposit with promo code BOOM100)
